The global solar photovoltaic (PV) module market has been growing at pace and is projected to rise to $133.12bn in market value by 2028, according to Power Technology’s parent company, GlobalData.
As the world moves towards greener energy solutions, solar power has gained significant momentum, with installed capacity anticipated to surpass 6.3TW within the next decade, according to Marc Jiggins, managing director at Pyramid Eco.
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The solar industry’s rapid expansion has directly benefitted the market for key components such as PV modules, which make up solar panels that harness solar energy for both residential and commercial applications.
Global PV module market outlook
According to GlobalData’s Solar PV Modules and Inverters Market Trends and Analysis report, the global solar PV module market was valued at $102.76bn in 2023.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region led the charge in 2023, registering $60.15bn.
China, specifically, is expected to continue dominating the market, with an anticipated PV module capacity increase to 157.85GW in 2028 from 147.68GW in 2023, according to GlobalData. Strong demand for clean power generation in the country, backed by robust policies and strong manufacturing capabilities, will augment the capacity during this forecast period.
The APAC region was followed by the Europe, Middle East and Africa and Americas regions with approximately $22.45bn and $20.16bn, respectively, in market value in 2023.
GlobalData highlights that economic growth, rising electricity demand, social development and the energy transition are among the contributing factors that determine the global PV module market’s growth in the coming years.
This growth is also driven by declining costs of PV module production, making solar installations more affordable across different markets.
Progress in solar cell efficiency continues to increase the performance of modules, making solar a favourable option in the fight to hit ambitious renewable energy targets set by governments across the world.
Crystalline versus thin-film
Crystalline and thin-film are currently considered the most viable module technologies.
First generation crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules, which consist of materials such as monocrystalline and polycrystalline, remain the dominant technology in the PV module market. Crystalline is the “workhorse” of the solar module industry, says Manav Mittal, senior engineering, procurement and construction project manager at Ampirical, making up the majority of the module market.
GlobalData forecasts that crystalline modules will continue to be adopted widely in the near future, reaching an estimated global installed capacity of 363.95GW by 2028.
The crystalline technology market is heavily oriented towards Asia, particularly China. China is well-positioned to maintain its position as a leader in c-Si market as it controls the majority of the world’s solar-grade polysilicon supply and processing capabilities, according to the International Energy Agency. “Chinese manufacturers have invested heavily in expanding capacity for c-Si modules,” explains Aaron Nichols, advocacy specialist at Exact Solar.
In recent years, however, thin-film module technology has become a promising alternative to c-Si. GlobalData estimates that global thin-film module capacity will reach 26.69GW and a market value of $102.76bn in 2023.
Considered second-generation solar cells, thin-film cells perform better in low-light and extreme temperatures, making them useful for specific applications. Production for thin-film is also cheaper than for c-Si cells as it requires less costly semiconductor material, reduces labour costs and requires lower temperatures to manufacture.
The technology can also potentially help countries across the world reduce their reliance on China, which dominates crystalline technology.
However, “the reason China doesn’t dominate in thin-film is simple – thin-film just isn’t worth the investment”, says Nichols.
Despite its advantages, thin-film’s average conversion efficiencies (12–14%) are generally lower than those of crystalline modules. GlobalData, nevertheless, anticipates that thin-film will gain ground in niche applications, particularly for off-grid solutions and building-integrated photovoltaics. The technology is also expected to gain traction in regions that experience less direct sunlight.
Looking ahead, crystalline modules will continue to dominate the global competitive landscape due to their efficiency and scalability, while thin-film will find its place in specific markets and applications.
Major players and emerging markets
The crystalline technology market is relatively fragmented, with multiple companies holding similar proportions of market share – albeit with most of the major players based in China. According to GlobalData’s report, 68.5% of the global c-Si module market in 2023 was made up of four Chinese companies: JinkoSolar (14.7%), Trina Solar (13.7%), LONGi (13.1%) and JA Solar (12.8%).
Chinese companies have benefitted from the country’s cost-efficient manufacturing processes and economies of scale.
Other prominent players in the c-Si market include Canadian Solar with a 6% market share, Astronergy Solar with 5.9% and Tongwei Solar with 5.9%.
Unlike the crystalline market, the thin-film market is more consolidated, with US-based manufacturer First Solar taking 47.45% of global market share as of 2023, and the rest (52.55%) spread across relatively less prominent players.
Likewise, China and the US have solidified their positions as leaders in the global solar PV module landscape. The two countries, respectively, are expected to reach $104.79bn and $50.75bn in their c-Si market values, and $7.68bn and $217m for thin-film.
However, several emerging markets show great potential to compete with these market leaders, mainly Brazil, Japan, India, Germany and South Africa – regions that continue to see rapid solar adoption. In these countries, the growth of the solar market is driven by policy incentives, economic development and the declining cost of solar systems.
By 2028, GlobalData forecasts that India’s crystalline module market will be valued at $8.67bn, followed by Germany ($7.5bn), Brazil ($7bn) and Japan ($3.18bn). Meanwhile, South Africa, Japan and Brazil will find a place in the global thin-film module market, and are expected to register $152m, $301m and $204m, respectively, in market value by 2028.
